Amelia Jones | 01/12/2025
This poster was presented at ISPOR 2025 in Glasgow (9-12 November).
Author Tom Padgett explains the motivation behind the research and provides further insight into the findings.
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We were inspired by frequent references to the “ageing population” in mainstream media and set out to quantify this trend and examine its implications for healthcare. By combining population estimates with fiscal data and healthcare resource usage, we demonstrate how demographic shifts will create compounding effects across the UK’s economic and healthcare systems.
Our research reveals an unsustainable trajectory: as the population ages, healthcare demand will surge while the tax base that funds public services like the NHS contracts. This imbalance underscores the urgent need for strategies to help society adapt.
Unlike conventional health economics models, which often assume static populations or short-term projections, this study incorporates dynamic parameters such as declining mortality and fertility rates. The results underscore the importance of considering these factors when modelling healthcare systems.
We also highlight the role of proactive investment. For example, increasing healthy life expectancy by just five years could generate an additional £91 billion, demonstrating the value of therapies and interventions that extend health span. Substantial change will be required to address the dual challenge of an ageing population and a shrinking tax base.
If you have any questions or would like to hear more about our research please contact Thomas Padgett, Principal Operational Researcher at HEOR: thomas.padgett@heor.co.uk.