Amelia Jones |
HEOR recently exhibited at OR68, the OR Society’s flagship annual conference for academics and professionals working across operational research, data science and analytics. As part of our stand activity, we challenged delegates with a seemingly simple question: How many jellybeans are in the jar? To add a healthcare twist, the jellybeans represented the average number of prescription pills issued per person in the UK over the course of a year.
The competition was designed to be fun, but it also reflected something at the heart of operational research: tackling uncertainty with a structured, evidence-based approach. While many attendees took their best guess, our winning entries stood out because of the thought process behind them.
One winner approached the challenge from a physical modelling perspective. By estimating the volume of an individual jellybean, accounting for how efficiently jellybeans pack together, and calculating the usable volume of the jar, they arrived at an estimate of around 1,100 jellybeans, remarkably close to the correct answer of 1,078.
Our second winner took a completely different route. Starting with UK population demographics and medication usage patterns across age groups, they developed a series of assumptions, weighted these estimates, and then sense-checked the result against the jar’s likely capacity. It was a creative, highly structured approach that combined data, logic, and validation.
What impressed us wasn’t just the accuracy of their answers. It was how they approached the problem. Both entries demonstrated qualities we value at HEOR every day: breaking down complex questions into manageable parts, using evidence thoughtfully, making reasonable assumptions, testing those assumptions, and clearly communicating their reasoning.
Whether we’re estimating the contents of a jellybean jar, modelling healthcare outcomes, analysing real-world evidence, or supporting market access decisions, the same principles apply. The strongest solutions come from asking the right questions, applying a logical framework, and explaining how you arrived at a conclusion.
Congratulations again to our winners and thank you to everyone who stopped by the HEOR stand to take part.
If this kind of thinking excites you, we’d love to hear from you. Explore current vacancies at HEOR: heor.co.uk/join-us/latest-vacancies.