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Health Economic Modelling

Health economic models are an important tool to aid and inform healthcare decision-making.
Our models are designed to be intuitive, scientifically robust and easy to manage. Demonstrating model credibility and validity is an integral part of the development process; therefore, we routinely carry out external validation of our models and those developed by other research groups.

Models for Health Technology Assessments

In our experience, how you present the results of an economic analysis is as important as the validity of the model used. HEOR Ltd has an extensive track record of successful health technology assessment (HTA) submissions based on health economic models that are clinically appropriate and technically robust. Our approach is to identify the optimal modelling framework for a given decision problem and to present the results of an analysis in a clear and insightful way. Models developed by HEOR Ltd are typically designed to form the basis of global health economics and outcomes research, which can then be easily adapted to local healthcare settings. We typically develop the model engine and interface separate from the model’s input data to facilitate adaptation across markets.

Disease Models

Modelling the natural history of disease and the impact of therapeutic interventions are at the core of HEOR Ltd’s research activities. The construction of the model is informed by rigorous interrogation of the available data, for example via Systematic Literature Review or analysis of routine data; where data gaps are identified or validation of the approach taken is considered necessary, clinical opinion is sought. This allows simulation of the natural history of the disease prior to and after therapeutic intervention in the most clinically appropriate and scientifically robust way.

A typical project would involve characterising the natural history of a disease (that is, its progression in the absence of intervention) from analysis of routinely collected or primary data collection and data available from the published literature. Our experience and expertise encompasses Markov models, individual patient-level simulation models (fixed-time increment or discrete event simulation) and disease transmission models.

Model Implementation

Our models are provided with clear and concise documentation to support ease of implementation: a user guide allows colleagues of all abilities to use the model effectively, and a technical report gives more in depth information regarding the model’s construction and function.

HEOR Ltd create material for and advise on global and core value dossiers, providing guidance on applying the model to relevant clinical scenarios, communicating strategic and value messages to specific markets. We are happy to discuss and accommodate your requirements We also offer full Education and Training to support the effective use of our models.


HEOR Ltd has an established reputation in advancing modelling approaches and model testing. Our researchers are members of the ISPOR-SMDM Joint Modelling Good Research Practices Task Force and have been active participants in the Mount Hood diabetes modelling challenges.

Any disease or economic model developed by HEOR Ltd is subject to extensive testing to establish the validity of the model against (1) the data used, i.e. “internal validation”–comparing a model’s output with the data used to inform the model parameters/structure; and (2) other data available; i.e. “external validation”–when initialised with data from another study, does the model predict outcomes in line with that study? A model that performs well in these regards has increased credibility. Model testing and validation is essential and a recognised strength of HEOR Ltd.

Budget Impact Tools

A robust budget impact model is a critical component of any comprehensive health economic evaluation. Estimating the financial consequences associated with the uptake of a new health technology is crucial. At HEOR, we ensure our budget impact models adhere to recommended best-practice guidelines and are transparent and relevant.

Training and Education

Economic evaluations of healthcare interventions routinely focus on population level cost-effectiveness analyses to support reimbursement decisions; the so-called ‘Fourth Hurdle’. Yet what is informative at the policy level does not always translate meaningfully to the local population or individual patient level. Population level analyses consider the ‘average patient’, while local payers and prescribers work with a group of individual patients with specific characteristics and health challenges. Translating the findings of policy level analyses to individual patients requires a full understanding of drivers of economic value and consequent affordability. Demonstrating value to payers and prescribers is increasingly recognised as the ‘Fifth Hurdle’.

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