Research motivation and background
The authors frequently observe mention of the ‘ageing population’ in the mainstream media, which inspired them to quantify this trend and explore its potential impacts on healthcare.

Originality and contribution
The authors bring together population estimates with fiscal data and healthcare resource usage data to highlight how demographic trends will have multiplicative effects across the economic and healthcare landscape in the UK.

Relevance and impact
The authors’ results indicate that ageing in the UK will significantly impact the demand for healthcare while simultaneously reducing the tax base available to fund public services like the NHS. This represents an unsustainable trajectory, and work is needed to understand how society can adapt to the ageing population.

Methodology and approach
Conventional health economics models tend to assume static populations or project only a short distance into the future. In this work, the authors demonstrate the significant impact of reductions in mortality and fertility rates on the economic and healthcare systems of the UK, highlighting the need to consider dynamic parameters when modelling healthcare.

Stakeholder engagement
Substantial change is needed to adapt to an ageing population and a shrinking tax base. For example, the authors demonstrate that increasing healthy life expectancy by 5 years would result in an additional £91 billion, highlighting the value of investments into therapeutic areas that significantly improve the health span of the population.

If you have any questions about the research or would like to discuss your specific challenge and potential solutions, please contact Thomas Padgett, Principal Operational Researcher at HEOR: thomas.padgett@heor.co.uk.