Revenue forecasting and launch sequence optimisation for early assets

Challenge

How do you determine the optimum indication launch sequence for an early-stage (pre-trial) asset?

Launching for a low value indication first may result in suboptimal revenue generation due to limited pricing options for high value indications.

This is challenging due to a lack of efficacy data and therefore no known economically justifiable prices.

Our client was interested in understanding pricing and launch sequencing across 12 indications and 8 countries.

HEOR developed an asset-agnostic, intuitive R/Shiny application. This Shiny app:

Determined indicative pricing across multiple indications and multiple countries
Determined revenue based on sales volumes and costs
Used complex optimisation methods to determine the optimal sequence of indications to launch (per county) to maximise revenue and/or net present value

HEOR provided indication pricing for each indication and each country, identifying the order of high to low value indications.

HEOR demonstrated the optimum sequence in which to launch the asset based on indicative pricing and forecast sales volumes.

HEOR identified two indications which may not be cost effective to launch, given their limited EJP.

Due to the asset-agnostic structure used in developing this Shiny application, the client can: