Case Study

Revenue forecasting and launch sequence optimisation for early assets


How do you determine the optimum indication launch sequence for an early-stage (pre-trial) asset?​

Launching for a low value indication first may result in suboptimal revenue generation due to limited pricing options for high value indications.

This is challenging due to a lack of efficacy data and therefore no known economically justifiable prices.

Our client was interested in understanding pricing and launch sequencing across 12 indications and 8 countries.


HEOR developed an asset-agnostic, intuitive R/Shiny application.​ This Shiny app:

  • Determined indicative pricing across multiple indications and multiple countries
  • Determined revenue based on sales volumes and costs
  • Used complex optimisation methods to determine the optimal sequence of indications to launch (per county) to maximise revenue and/or net present value


HEOR provided indication pricing for each indication and each country, identifying the order of high to low value indications.​

HEOR demonstrated the optimum sequence in which to launch the asset based on indicative pricing and forecast sales volumes. ​

HEOR identified two indications which may not be cost effective to launch, given their limited EJP.

Due to the asset-agnostic structure used in developing this Shiny application, the client can:​

  • Repeat the analysis, should inputs change
  • Perform the analysis for other indications with the same asset
  • Perform the analysis for a separate asset